It's Set: Tafoya vs. Flanagan in Minnesota, and the Senate Could Run Through It

Minnesota has its matchup for the first open U.S. Senate seat in 20 years: Republican Michele Tafoya against Democrat Peggy Flanagan. Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is leaving after eight years, and the general election is in November, according to MPR News.

The two nominees could hardly be more different, and that is the story.

The Democrat

Flanagan, the lieutenant governor, beat U.S. Rep. Angie Craig in a Democratic primary that topped $30 million in spending. She won the party's convention endorsement and built her campaign alongside progressive leaders like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. She describes the race as the "many versus the money." She told voters, "I will work my tail off to earn your votes and most importantly your trust."

The Republican

Tafoya is the former sports broadcaster. She beat a crowded Republican field, including convention-endorsed former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and former basketball player Royce White, with backing from national Republicans and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott have called her a star recruit, according to Axios.

Our readers should know the whole picture. Tafoya calls herself a "pro-choice Republican," and in 2022 she publicly discouraged Trump from running for president, Axios reported. She now seeks his endorsement and has been in contact with White House staff. Her own words: "I am running to call balls and strikes to say, 'I think the president is right on this one. I think the president is wrong on this one.'" Some of our readers will not love that. We would rather they hear it from us than be surprised by it.

The Polls

One poll from late summer shows how close this is. TIPP and the League of American Workers surveyed 1,201 likely voters from August 31 to September 2 and found Flanagan at 44 percent, Tafoya at 42, other candidates at 4 and 8 percent undecided, with a margin of error of 3 points. That is a statistical tie. Newsweek noted the pollster is described as a conservative advocacy organization led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, so treat it with that in mind. In the same survey, Flanagan was 39 percent favorable and 34 unfavorable, while Tafoya was 34 favorable and 30 unfavorable.

Why Republicans Are Excited

Axios reported in January that the Cook Political Report rated the race "likely Democrat," and that Republicans saw openings in Minnesota's ongoing fraud scandal and a bruising Democratic primary. That primary is now over, and the fight Republicans hoped for did happen.

Our Take

Democrats will say Tafoya is a broadcaster with no record and a party label that does not fit Minnesota. We think the opposite. A candidate who says she will judge the president case by case, and who wants to talk about housing costs, border security and fraud, is a better fit for a swing-minded state than a nominee who ran with Sanders and Warren. What makes this race matter is the seat itself. An open seat held by a Democrat is a pickup opportunity for Republicans, and every dollar and every ad in Minnesota will be watched in Washington.