Ohio Early Vote: 27 Points Bluer Than 2024

Ohio was supposed to be safe ground. The early vote says Republicans should not assume anything.

A CNN analysis of statewide early-voting data, published Oct. 11, found the electorate so far is about 27 points more Democratic than it was at the same point in 2024. Counties that voted most strongly for Kamala Harris are about 25 points more Democratic, and the shift reaches deep into Trump country too. In the president's strongest counties, Republicans led the early vote by 30 points at this point in 2024. Now they lead by five.

What the numbers do and do not say

The caveats are real, and CNN made them itself. The analysis is based on voters' party history, which does not reveal how anyone actually voted. It is still early. And in recent years, Republicans have been much more likely to vote early in person or on Election Day, while mail voting this year is running far behind its 2024 pace. Early returns are a signal, not a scoreboard.

The polls point the same direction, though. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely Ohio voters, taken Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, found Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 43% in the U.S. Senate special election, with a margin of error of 4.5 points. The same poll had Democrat Amy Acton ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by eight points in the governor's race. A Marist poll earlier showed Brown up by eight. Nationally, a Pew Research Center survey released Oct. 8 found Democratic voters more engaged in the midterms than Republicans.

President Trump rallied with Husted and Ramaswamy in Vandalia, near Dayton, on Oct. 3 and called both men "fantastic guys."

The take

Here is the honest read: Republicans are not losing Ohio. They are not voting yet.

That is a choice, and right now it is a costly one. Every Republican who waits until Nov. 3 is a vote that can be lost to bad weather, a sick kid, a long shift or a long line. Democrats learned years ago to bank their votes early and spend the final weeks chasing the stragglers. When one side's ballots are already counted and the other side's are still a promise, the side with the promise is playing from behind.

The five-point margin in Trump's best counties should alarm every county chairman in the state. Those are the voters who carried Ohio for the president three times. If even a slice of them sits this one out, a Senate seat that should be safe becomes a coin flip, and the Senate majority goes with it.

There is also a message in the polls that conservatives should not dismiss. Voters are worried about prices. Diesel was $6.32 a gallon on Oct. 6, according to AAA data, and families feel that in every grocery bill. Candidates who talk about the cost of living in plain terms, and say what they will do about it, will turn out their voters. Candidates who assume the base will show up on its own may be surprised.

None of this is destiny. CNN itself called the early data far from determinative, and a poll is a snapshot, not a result. But elections are not won by what voters feel. They are won by who shows up.

If you are a Republican in Ohio, early voting is open now. Vote now, and bring three people with you.