ECONOMY · The American Take
17% Approve on Costs. That's a Warning, GOP.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey fielded September 30 to October 5 found 78% of respondents say the White House bears at least some blame for higher prices, including 64% of Republicans.
Nineteen days before the midterms, the number that should worry Republicans most is not a head-to-head poll. It is a question about who gets blamed for the grocery bill.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 4,506 Americans, conducted online nationwide from September 30 to October 5 and reported on October 9, found that about 78% of respondents say at least some of the blame for higher prices lies with the White House. That includes 64% of Republicans and 76% of independents. Note the wording: 78% is the share assigning some blame, not total blame.
Other findings from the same survey, as relayed by Fox affiliate coverage of the poll:
- 54% said the cost of living has risen a lot in the past year, including 40% of Republicans. Thirty percent said it rose only a little, and 10% said it was unchanged. - About 57% of Republicans said costs have risen faster than their paychecks. - 45% of respondents named unauthorized immigration as a major cause of higher prices. - Fox's account says most Americans cited tariffs as a significant cause. We could not retrieve the Reuters/Ipsos release itself to confirm the exact wording, so treat the tariff figure as reported, not confirmed.
The earlier numbers
This is not a one-off. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Sunday, September 20, President Trump's overall approval fell to 32%, which Reuters called the lowest of his political career. Just 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living. Republicans who disapprove of his handling of the cost of living outnumbered those who approve, 51% to 44%. Support among Republicans overall had fallen to 73% from 82% a week earlier. Another Reuters/Ipsos reading, fielded September 30 to October 5, listed approval at 32% with 65% disapproving, according to a Wikipedia polling table that we could not verify against the Reuters release.
Prices are the reason. The AAA national average for regular gasoline was $4.41 on October 1, down about 7 cents from the prior week but far above the $3.16 a year earlier. AAA said September's monthly average of $4.33 set a record for the month, 50 cents above the previous September record set in 2023. Crude oil had dipped back into the $90s per barrel.
The other side
Defenders of the administration have an answer, and it is not frivolous. Coverage of the midterm landscape ties gas and fertilizer prices to the Iran war, which is not something a president can end with a signature. Polls fielded online with a few thousand respondents carry a margin of error, and the "some blame" wording sweeps in people who might also blame Democrats, the Federal Reserve, or the war. A question about whether the White House shares blame tends to produce a high number, because presidents are the nearest target. And it is worth noting that 45% of respondents tied prices to illegal immigration, a point the administration's border policy speaks to directly.
The take
The administration can quibble with the polling and still lose the argument. The core lesson is that Republican voters, not just the swing voters Democrats are courting, are saying costs outran paychecks. When 64% of your own side says you share the blame, that is not a messaging problem. It is a policy problem.
Three things follow.
First, own the problem. "It's the war" may be true, but a voter who pays $4.41 for gas does not care why. The party that governs gets the blame and the credit, and a majority of Republicans in this survey are already saying so.
Second, look hard at tariffs. If Americans really do see tariffs as a significant cause of higher prices, as the Fox-reported summary says, then the burden is on the administration to show the offsetting gains in jobs and investment. We have not seen that evidence in this reporting, and we will not pretend to have it.
Third, Democrats should not take much comfort. The same poll found 45% of respondents tie higher prices to illegal immigration, which is an argument Democrats have to answer if they want to run on the cost of living.
Midterm elections are Tuesday, November 3. Voters will not be voting on a poll about blame. But they will be paying the bills while they decide.
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