Democrats Keep Flirting With Impeachment. Here's Why It's a Trap for Them

On September 26, the Associated Press reported that House Democrats are planning "vast oversight" of the Trump administration if they win control of Congress in November, with a headline that put it plainly: impeachment is an option. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, in the AP's account, "We haven't ruled anything out … and we haven't ruled anything in."

That is not a promise to impeach. It is a decision to keep the possibility alive. Here is why we think that is a mistake.

What Democrats Are Actually Saying

In June, Jeffries said Democrats "have not ruled anything in or out" on impeachment, according to Traders Union, while stressing affordability and government accountability. The AP reported that Democrats plan investigations across several committees, including Trump family business dealings and civil rights questions around immigration enforcement.

Pressure from their own side is real. In April, Axios reported that Trump's Truth Social posts about Iran prompted dozens of Democrats to call for his impeachment or removal under the 25th Amendment. In January, ABC News reported that Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, acknowledged "definitely a rising clamor for impeachment."

On September 27, Common Dreams quoted Rep. Ro Khanna: "It's about setting a standard, and the Democrats can impeach, to uphold constitutional values, and at the same time, have a first-hundred-day agenda that deals with the cost of living."

The Math Democrats Already Know

The Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict, according to the Senate's own website. That means 67 votes. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, according to Newsweek. Even if Democrats gain four seats and reach 51, they would still be 16 votes short without Republican help.

Trump has been impeached twice and acquitted both times. The Senate voted 57 to 43 to convict in February 2021, ten votes short of the 67 required, according to Wikipedia's account. His first trial, in February 2020, also ended in acquittal.

Democrats seem to understand this. In April, Axios quoted Rep. Don Beyer, a Virginia Democrat: "Impeachment wouldn't likely succeed, so we're not running it." Rep. Madeleine Dean, a former impeachment manager, said, "That's not the fight right now."

The Trap

Here is where we think Democrats walk into it.

First, they hand Republicans a reason to vote. In January, NBC News reported that Trump told House Republicans at a retreat that if they lose control, "I'll get impeached." ABC reported that Rep. Dan Meuser said voters can't allow the House to flip if they want Trump to serve out his term. A Democratic leader who will not rule impeachment out makes that pitch easier.

Second, it competes with the message Democrats say they want. Their own leaders keep returning to affordability. Every week the conversation is about impeachment is a week it is not about prices.

Third, it is unlikely to succeed, as Beyer admitted. If it fails in the Senate, a third acquittal becomes the headline, and Trump gets a victory lap.

The Other Side

Democrats have an argument, and it is not a silly one. They say accountability matters even when conviction is unlikely, and Jeffries has said, in the AP's account, that "If folks have been stealing from the American people … we are going to hold the crooks accountable." They also point out that oversight and impeachment are not the same thing. That is fair. But keeping impeachment on the table is a gift to the other party every time it is repeated.