Seven Senate Seats Are Toss-Ups. GOP Holds 53.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Nineteen days from now, on Tuesday, November 3, the question is how many of them are really safe.

According to a States Newsroom report published October 12 and carried by outlets including the Alaska Beacon, Michigan Advance and the Daily Montanan, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The same report says Republicans are defending a 53-seat Senate majority and also face a fight for the House, and it describes President Trump's standing as weak, citing an approval rating of about 37% in a New York Times analysis and linking the mood to the Iran war and rising gas and fertilizer prices.

Trump is on the road. The report said he was scheduled to rally in Alaska on Tuesday and in Arizona and Montana on Wednesday, with a Georgia stop expected Friday. We could not find post-event coverage confirming the rallies took place as scheduled or what he said, so we are not characterizing them. A campaign-event preview listed the Wednesday Montana stop as Kalispell, in support of Republican Aaron Flint in the state's western House district, where it said Flint is in a statistical tie with Democrat Sam Forstag.

Two races worth a close look

Ohio. Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown. A Bowling Green State University poll of 800 registered voters, reported by NBC4 in Columbus, has Brown slightly ahead with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points, which makes the race effectively a tie. We could not retrieve the exact topline numbers from the October release. An earlier BGSU poll was reported with Brown ahead 48% to 45%. Two other polls, from Suffolk and Marist, were reported in late September showing Brown competitive or leading.

Texas. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the seat being vacated by four-term Sen. John Cornyn. A Fox Local tracker built on Texas Politics Project data describes the race as a dead heat, with mid-September polls showing Talarico slightly ahead in one and tied in another. Early voting in Texas begins Monday, October 19.

Reading the numbers fairly

A map of toss-ups is a forecast, not a result. Cook's ratings can move, and the one summary we have of them comes secondhand through a syndicated report. The approval figure it cites, about 37%, differs from the 32% reading in recent Reuters/Ipsos polling, which shows how much the answer depends on the pollster and the method. Polls in individual states carry larger margins of error than national ones. Anyone who tells you the Senate is already decided is selling you something.

The other side deserves its due. Republicans can point out that a toss-up rating is not a lean toward Democrats and that the party holds the majority today. We did not verify which party currently holds each of the seven seats, and we are not making claims about it.

The take

Here is what conservatives should take from the list. First, the majority is not the same as the agenda. Judicial confirmations, spending bills and oversight all run through the Senate, and a thin margin leaves less room for any one senator to say no. If you want the administration's priorities to survive the next two years, these seven races are where that is decided.

Second, rallies are for turnout, not persuasion. A president who is polling in the 30s has to ask whether the Alaska and Arizona trips move anyone who was not already planning to vote Republican. The better use of presidential time is to talk about costs, because that is what voters keep telling pollsters about. A rally that stays on the border and the economy is more useful to Husted and Paxton than a rally that stays on grievance.

Third, the margins are thin. In Ohio the public poll is inside its margin of error and in Texas trackers call it a dead heat. Close races reward the side with the better ground game, and no one should treat a toss-up as safe.

Finally, a plain instruction. Vote. Early voting in Texas starts Monday, and the rest of the country follows. Nobody can cast your ballot for you, and in a race this tight a few votes can matter.