Trump Heads North to Save Alaska's Seat

Presidents do not fly to Alaska three weeks before an election unless the seat is in danger. Tonight, Donald Trump is in Alaska.

The president is headlining a rally in Wasilla, about 45 miles north of Anchorage, for Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term. PBS listed his remarks for 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The stop opens a western swing that continues Wednesday with rallies in Arizona and Montana. Vice President JD Vance has already rallied in Fairbanks for Sullivan and Rep. Nick Begich.

The race

Sullivan's opponent is Democrat Mary Peltola, the former congresswoman. Recent polls show a very close race, with Peltola narrowly ahead in most of them:

- InsiderAdvantage, surveying 1,200 likely voters October 9 and 10, had Peltola at 48.2% and Sullivan at 42.6% in the first round, and Peltola 50.1% to Sullivan's 48% after ranked-choice tabulation. - Alaska Survey Research, surveying 1,512 likely voters, had Peltola 51% to 49% in the final round. - Trafalgar Group, polling September 22 to 24, had Sullivan ahead 46.8% to 45.5% on the first count, inside its 2.9-point margin of error.

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in its general elections, which helped Peltola win the state's at-large House seat in 2022. That system can scramble a race in a state where Republicans usually win statewide.

The other side

Democrats argue that Peltola's independent brand, built on fishing, resource jobs and a moderate voting record, fits Alaska better than national party labels do. Some forecasters now rate the race as leaning Democratic. Her supporters say the president's visit proves Republicans are worried.

They are right that Republicans are worried. They should be.

The take

This seat matters for one reason above all: the Senate majority. Control of the Senate decides whether the president's judges get confirmed, whether his nominees get a vote, and whether the next two years are spent governing or fending off subpoenas. Alaska could be the seat that decides it.

Sullivan has been a reliable vote for energy independence, a strong military and the confirmation of constitutionalist judges. Alaska's economy runs on oil, gas, fishing and the military. Those are issues where the administration's agenda and Alaska's interests line up: opening federal land to production, standing up to the regulators who spent years locking it down, and keeping the bases in the Arctic strong as Russia and China push north.

Ranked-choice voting is the wild card. It rewards a candidate who can be everyone's second choice, and Peltola has used it well before. Republicans cannot afford to split votes or skip the second ranking. The lesson of 2022 is simple: rank your conservative candidate first, and do not leave the rest of the ballot to chance.

The president's trip is the right call. He is the most effective turnout machine the party has, and in a race where the polls are separated by a point or two, turnout is the whole game. The question now belongs to Alaskans. Three weeks from tonight, they decide whether the last frontier stays part of the governing majority.